The next 18 months.
In the advertising world, June means thinking about what will happen in the future. Our clients (big brands) essentially pay my salary to think about what’s coming next and come up with a strategy for what to do about it. So I was asked to come up with my vision of what will happen in the next 18 months and where we’ll be at the end of 2013. The strategy part is different for all our clients and confidential so that won’t be very public.
Instead of coming up with quotes and stats projecting where the numbers are predicted to go, I made more of a qualitative POV to facilitate a bit more of a thought provking discussion and place my own personal bets as to where I think things will be. I think it’s absolutely necessary to declare what you believe or else you stand for nothing.
If I were a VC this is what I would bet on, if I were a CEO or CMO this is where I would sprint towards and if I were making a startup then this is exactly where I’d focus on.
This is also mostly a list since this is how I sort my thoughts before I make this into a shiny presentation. The presentation of course would be backed up with dozens of stats but that’s the easier part. I’d love any feedback too: @johnnywon.
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Media consumption that used to be thick will become very, very wide
- There will no longer be tent-pole TV shows (the thick audience) or the must have newspaper subscription
- There will only be more consumption across a broader spectrum of distributed media (the wide audience)
- The thick audience is gone forever; spend accordingly.
Personal computing is changing from everything we’ve ever experienced
- PC Desktop & Laptop sales are down as an industry and will never come back
- Smartphones & tablets are in triple digit growth. iPad, Windows 8 Surface, Amazon Fire & the Google Nexus Tablet are for the masses
- Owning multiple devices to suit a lifestyle will be the new normal across all incomes & demographics
A Dramatic Disruption is Inevitable
- A rumored Apple powered TV set would instantly & permanently change how TV shows are made & how TV ads are bought/sold
- An iPhone with a built in NFC (near field communication) chip for walleting would forever change how we think & spend money
- Nearly everything we buy, do or spend time on will be in the cloud as a photo, check-in, re-blog, share, Tweet, reference. iCloud, Google Drive, Windows SkyDrive
Cars are essentially becoming a Smartphone Accessory
- Voice command navigation, music, social media apps all through smartphones (Siri Eyes-Free for iPhone)
- Personalized health reports & diagnostics on car maintenance
- Cars don’t just have navigation systems, they’re literally search engines on four wheels. BMW calls theirs “BMW Search”; Mercedes has an app called mbrace and integrates nearly 20 security, destination planning and convenience services; Audi connect® turns an Audi into a WiFi hotspot passengers to retrieve information on the internet conveniently
The Mobile Wallet will explode in usage
- Dozens of different apps for boarding passes, movie tickets, retail coupons, loyalty cards, and more will be a part of everything we do
- Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Google, Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, Apple, Paypal, Walmart+Target all have competing initiatives for the mobile wallet
- If you think Apple’s TV set would be disruptive (cracking a $20 billion market), Apple cracking the Visa/Mastercard duopoly would be worth significantly more (a $100-$200 billion market)
Sharing things socially will be almost entirely on smartphones
- iOS6 integration tied into Facebook will set the new standard for how social media will be deeply integrated into all future smartphones
- The advancing technology in smartphones, better cameras, bigger bandwidth w/Bluetooth 4, NFC chips, bigger screens will only accelerate the sharing of photos, videos, locations, purchases, and more
Everyone who wants to be social is already social
- In a way, social is peaking. New users to the giants, Facebook, Twitter or Foursquare, are less important than having their existing base maintain usage or increase usage. In fact, Facebook has peaked with the number of unique users. Twitter & Foursquare’s new users will be a lot less interesting than what their current users will continue to do.
- There will be no alternatives to Facebook, Twitter or Foursquare; there will only be a user’s choice to keep using them or not.
- Creating new interactions via social will be the biggest & brightest frontier for social. Instagram = Photos+Social, Sims Social = Gaming+Social, Flipboard = Reading+Social
Consumption of video on mobile devices will eclipse all other devices
- Things like HBO to Go, ESPN anywhere, Netflix, Amazon Prime are the tip of the iceberg
- Nearly every content producer of any digital publishing property will start producing video content
- Existing efforts from digital publishers will aggressively expand due to their need to better monetize their properties
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The next 18 months are going to get crazy. Everything as we know it will change.
